OEM and Retail MVNOs Will Have 505 Million Customers by 2014
Mobile phones are being joined by a growing number of other wirelessly connected devices including laptops, netbooks, e-readers, portable navigation devices, mobile media players, mobile gaming devices, digital cameras. These fall outside the usual range of products sold and supported by mobile operators. Forecasts indicate that in 2014 there will be 2.5 billion connected data-centric devices in use worldwide, and of those, almost 1.5 billion will not be handsets.
The result, according to analysts at ABI Research, is that in the next few years, OEMs and large retailers selling these products will emerge as major providers of the cellular connectivity they use.
“Carriers tell us they view the wireless connectivity business model for these emerging devices as murky,” says senior analyst Mark Beccue. “They are quite prepared to sell connectivity wholesale, allowing retailers and OEMs to assume the role of primary service provider to their customers.”
The first signs of this shift are already visible: TomTom and Garmin have both announced partnerships with AT&T, allowing them to sell the connectivity for their navigation devices. In Japan HP offers a netbook for which it is the wireless service provider.
This trend will be common to all developed consumer societies, but, Beccue says, will be especially strong in North America, with its high multiple device ownership, large integrated market, and huge retailers. “These new service providers won’t dominate the market, but in North America in 2014 will provide as much as one third of the 595 million expected mobile data connections.”
Best Buy, for example, with its annual turnover of $40 billion and a growing mobile business, is in a prime position to become a wireless data connectivity MVNO.
“Data plans offered by retailers and OEMs will focus on pay-as-you-go services,” concludes Beccue, “or on models like that of Amazon’s Kindle, where the connectivity cost is built into the price of the content.” [ABIResearch]
FCC to Propose Net Neutrality Rules for Wireless
By Phil Goldstein
FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski is going to propose new net neutrality rules for wired and wireless networks in a speech on Monday, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, which cited unnamed people familiar with the proposal. If such rules go into effect, it would be a major blow to wireless carriers that have argued that the mobile Web is inherently different from the wired one, and requirements to support data-intensive applications could harm the quality of their networks.
In reaction to the news, wireless trade association CTIA reiterated its longstanding position against net neutrality in wireless. "We are waiting to read the chairman's proposal, but as we've said before, we are concerned about the unintended consequences that net neutrality regulation would have on investments from the very industry that's helping to drive the U.S. economy," said Chris Guttman-McCabe, vice president of regulatory affairs for CTIA. "We believe that this kind of regulation is unnecessary in the competitive wireless space as it would prevent carriers from managing their networks--such as curtailing viruses and other harmful content- to the benefit of their consumers."
According to the WSJ report, the FCC's plan will take into account the bandwidth limitations of carriers, although it's unclear exactly how that provision would be implemented.
Net neutrality has been a long-standing issue among wired Internet providers, and it recently migrated into the wireless world. Skype has argued for unfettered access to wireless networks via its mobile VoIP service, for instance, and Sling Media's SlingPlayer Mobile video application for the iPhone can transmit only over WiFi and not AT&T Mobility's cellular network.
An FCC representative was not immediately available to comment on the report. Genachowski is expected to appear at an event Monday in Washington, D.C., hosted by the Brookings Institution think tank. Josh Silverman, the CEO of Skype; David Young, Verizon Communications' vice president of federal regulatory affairs; and Ben Scott, the policy director of consumer advocacy group Free Press, are also expected to appear.[FierceBroadbandWireless]
Recession or Not, Wireless Backhaul Expansion Continues Strongly
Worldwide revenues from backhaul leasing are expected to double over the next 30 months, according to a new study from ABI Research. The growth curve even accelerates after 2012, resulting in a fivefold revenue increase between 2009 and 2014.
Why this powerful performance? According to ABI Research senior analyst Nadine Manjaro, the main driver is the effort by mobile operators to prepare for an upgrade to LTE. “Operators might not deploy LTE immediately,” she says, “but they know that before they do, they’ll have to upgrade their backhaul capacity.”
Backhaul is the bottleneck that can prevent a satisfactory 3G user experience. “AT&T Mobility has found that one iPhone user typically generates as much data traffic as 30 basic feature phone users,” notes Manjaro. Wireless network traffic will dramatically increase as iPhone-like devices becomes the norm and laptop PC card usage increases.
Another indicator is the growing capital expenditure on microwave backhaul, which will exceed $8.5 billion in 2009.
The market opportunities generated by this growth in backhaul are spread around the backhaul equipment vendors and fixed line operators. Some backhaul infrastructure vendors like Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, and Nokia Siemens Network will benefit from operators’ strong interest in Carrier Ethernet solutions. Major microwave equipment vendors like Dragon Wave and Harris Stratex will also benefit from increased microwave adoption. And fixed-line operators such as BT, Embarq, AT&T, and Verizon Communications will develop new revenue streams by providing leased backhaul services.
Even the business models for backhaul are in flux. “We have observed a movement towards backhaul as a managed service,” says Manjaro. “This enables mobile operators to focus on their core business, while guaranteeing a backhaul capacity matched to their changing traffic demands. BT provides that service to four of the top five European operators. In the US Embarq is moving in the same direction, and I think more cable companies will follow suit. Wireline operators, who typically were losing business to wireless operators, can now get a piece of that wireless pie.” [ABI Research]
Nearly 700 Million Wireless Video and Audio Connectivity Products to Ship in 2013
Shipments of four classes of wireless audio and video connectivity products for the home, which barely amount to 150 million this year, are expected to increase to nearly 700 million worldwide by the end of 2013, according to a new ABI Research study.
The technologies in question are Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, UWB (ultra-wideband) and 60 GHz (the likely standard-bearer for in-home wireless distribution of uncompressed high-definition video.) ABI Research has long maintained that as the wireless home electronics market grows, these technologies will coexist and become closely integrated according to their strengths and specialties.
“Wireless video and audio connectivity within the home is still an early-adopter’s market,” notes senior analyst Douglas McEuen. “As prevalent as wireless connectivity is in the home, it’s still a small proportion compared to the potential overall market, and even smaller when it’s a question of in-home media networks. However as these systems begin to appear in consumers’ homes, word of the benefits will spread, boosting acceptance levels.”
While the Bluetooth and Wi-Fi markets are already large and well-established, those for UWB and 60 GHz – especially the latter – are in their infancy. However, says McEuen, “Once UWB begins to hit its stride around 2010, it will show the highest year-over-year growth rate of any of the four technologies.”
Much of the growth of home connectivity markets will follow a steady progression, but it could be accelerated by the activities of a few companies which, the study says, are “pushing the technological envelope.” Two newer vendors promoting new technology stand out: SiBEAM and Amimon. The former developed and has been leading the charge for the 60 GHz HD video solution, while the latter has pioneered the concept of the video modem. [ABI Research]
Researchers See Light as The New WiFi
By Jim Barthold
Researchers at Boston University's College of Engineering are literally interpreting the phrase "lighting up a network." The college, along with Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the University of New Mexico are partners in an $18.5 million National Science Foundation (NSF) program to develop ways to use visible light to generate communications technology instead of radio waves.
The multi-year program will use low-power light emitting diodes (LEDs) to create smart lighting that would become the equivalent of a WiFi access point. Similar to the IR technology used for TV remotes, the white light would provide Internet connections to multiple devices within a room. Besides replacing the wireless network, it would also replace most conventional lighting devices and serve the dual purpose of lighting up a room and a network.
Rensselaer and UNM are tasked with creating novel devices and system applications ad materials to interface with the network. BU will focus on developing computer networking capabilities and the optical technology for the network's backbone. The university expects to get $1 million in funding for the next 10 years from the NSF and outside funding from industrial partners and entrepreneurs. [FierceWireless]
Google's Vision For an Open Wireless World
News analysis: Will mobiles be free to roam wi-fi?
By Marguerite Reardon
Google's vision of tomorrow's wireless network is in stark contrast to how wireless operators do business today, setting the two sides on a possible collision course.
Earlier this week, the search giant filed a patent application with the US Patent Office describing its vision of an open wireless network where smart phones aren't tied to any single mobile phone network. In Google's open wireless world, phones and other wireless devices would search for the strongest, fastest connection at the most competitive price. Essentially, wireless operators' networks would be reduced to "dumb pipes".
The idea is that depending on where a wireless user is at any given time, he could be on any number of networks. For example, if coverage is better from Verizon Wireless at home, a subscriber might connect to that network to make phone calls. But he might use AT&T while at work, where the signal is stronger. Price would also be a factor, and operators would constantly be vying in a sort of auction to provide the most competitive pricing for the call.
Meanwhile, users could also access other free or low-cost networks. So if, for example, someone wanted to surf the web from their phone they could connect via a wi-fi or WiMax network. Or people may even be able to connect to a network that uses yet-to-be available "white space" spectrum.
This notion of a device connecting to any network is quite different from how the wireless industry operates today. When people buy mobile phones today, they're essentially locked to one provider. A particular provider may have roaming agreements with other phone operators but customers have a contract and billing relationship with one operator. And if they decide to switch carriers, they usually have to pay a penalty for breaking a contract, and they must purchase a phone that will work on the new network.
Of course, consumers don't have the same issues in the broadband market, where people can connect to any broadband network using any computer, whether it be a wi-fi, cable or DSL connection.
Read more - silicon.com
Microsofts Tests WiFi in Vehicles
By Doug Mohney
Microsoft is testing WiFi usage in vehicles, an effort that is shedding new light on public wireless networks and how VoIP calls might get transmitted - or not.
Testing is being conducted around Seattle, and the biggest advantage to tapping into a community WiFi network is lower cost of access. Plus, every mobile device has built-in WiFi these days .
However, WiFi has a big problem with hand-offs between base stations; not so good for an in-progress VoIP call over a cheaper WiFi network. (You may queue your WiMAX commercial here in a limited number of second-tier U.S. markets). There's also the assumption that there's a nice big WiFi network available for use; the muni WiFi market has had its ups and downs of late.
Researchers at the University of Massachusetts, the University of Washington and Microsoft have worked up a solution to talk to multiple access points at once. The "Vi-Fi" (Vehicle WiFi) system would treat one access point as an "anchor" primary reception point and use other base stations in the system as auxiliary paths.
Some tricky math allows the system to figure out the chance a packet received by an auxiliary base station wasn't received by the anchor; if true, the aux base station relays the packet to the anchor as a backup. [FierceBroadbandWireless]
Active DAS Systems Will Lead In-Building Wireless Revenues to $9.2 Billion by 2013
At the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado this week, active distributed antenna systems (DAS) provided by ADC played a key role in the political process by providing mobile communications inside major convention buildings. Large infrastructures, such as those used by the DNC, are most in need of better in-building wireless coverage and active DAS provide the best solution overall.
Indeed, as reported extensively in a recent ABI Research study, the provision of coverage in the largest buildings will drive active DAS systems growth at a compound annual growth rate of 28% through 2013.
Active DAS systems deliver the greatest cost benefit in very large buildings. Below 500,000 square feet, passive systems such as repeaters and passive DAS systems start to become more cost-effective. But with data services becoming a greater portion of wireless services ARPU, capacity becomes an equally relevant design factor.
According to ABI Research principal analyst Dan Shey, “Capacity is playing an increased role in the design of in-building wireless systems. As buildings get smaller, and with the presence of older passive systems, solutions will utilize a toolkit of options including repeaters, femtocells, picocells, and passive and active DAS systems. Interestingly, this solution complexity will also create a very competitive supplier environment.”
In-building wireless systems will also provide the communications infrastructure to serve the needs resulting from other growing trends such as public safety coverage and environmental concerns. Says Shey, “As in-building wireless systems become more useful to building owners and enterprises, reliability, throughput, and manageability will become important design factors. This will drive product development in all related equipment and will create more managed services opportunities, ultimately growing the in-building wireless ecosystem and revenues.” [ABI Research]
Enterprise Mandate: Go Wireless Now
By Sue Marek
Wireless is no longer an option for enterprises. With high-speed wireless networks and intelligent devices, IT managers are faced with a mandate to make their employees mobile immediately. Expect the show floor to be buzzing with security firms promising the latest software to keep proprietary corporate information safe in a mobile world and device makers to be showing off the latest handset capabilities that allow workers to morph their devices into efficient business tools.
Although RIM will have a high-profile presence at the show (co-CEO Jim Basillie will be a keynote speaker on Day 2 at CTIA), we expect Apple's iPhone 3G to be the center of many enterprise-device discussions. The enterprise applications that the iPhone supports may be narrow (email and browsing) but many IT managers are praising it for its ease of use and functionality. The next step: getting more enterprise applications available to iPhone users.
Finally, you know the mobile enterprise market has matured when one of the educational panels is devoted to value added resellers and how these players can better sell wireless to small and medium-size businesses.
CTIA Opposes FCC's Free Wireless Broadband Plan
By Lynnette Luna
The comment deadline for the FCC's controversial plan to auction nationwide spectrum in the AWS-3 band that would require the winner to offer free wireless broadband services was Friday, and not surprisingly, T-Mobile and CTIA are openly opposing the plan.
The commission is proposing to combine the 2155 to 2175 MHz band with the 2175 MHz to 2180 MHz band to create a 25-megahertz swath of spectrum that would support a nationwide license. The spectrum is referred to as advanced wireless services-3 and would require the licensee to dedicate 25 percent of its network capacity to free broadband service, install a network-based Internet filtering system to block pornography and allow open access to third-party devices and applications.
T-Mobile has already been vocal about its concerns over potential interference in the band since it is the largest licensee of AWS-1 spectrum. CTIA claims the FCC is not dealing in good faith with T-Mobile.
"How can the FCC expect investors and the carriers they fund to show up at future auctions and fully utilize their spectrum if they have no confidence that the FCC is an honest broker?" the CTIA said in a June 25 letter to the FCC. "Now the FCC is planning to pull the rug out from under those same licensees by developing new rules that will cause harmful interference to their customers."
Reply comments to the FCC are due Aug. 11. [FierceBroadbandWireless]
AT&T Navigator Goes International
By Jason Ankeny
AT&T Mobility announced the launch of AT&T Navigator Global Edition, expanding its GPS-based service to provide international navigation capabilities. AT&T Navigator Global Edition now offers location services spanning 20 countries, including most of Western Europe, North America and the Caribbean as well as the six Chinese cities that will host the 2008 Summer Olympics.
AT&T Navigator Global Edition promises many of the same features as the domestic AT&T Navigator service: Subscribers may access spoken or text-based turn-by-turn directions in languages including English, German, Italian and Spanish, and are offered automatic re-routing information if they miss a turn. The service also features a local business finder enabling search by category or specific retailer name.
According to AT&T, the Navigator business finder database now encompasses more than 19 million businesses and services across the U.S. and abroad, including ATMs, hotels, restaurants, gas stations and airports. [ABI Research]
Trend: Location Based Services “On the Move” in Asia and Europe
In 2007, North America generated 81% of the world’s Location Based Services (LBS) revenue. In 2013, that percentage will be just 32%. In the same period, Western and Eastern Europe’s combined LBS revenues will jump from just 5% to 31%. The Asia-Pacific region, meanwhile, will see a rise from a 2007 share of 11%, to 27%.
“Location based services are not a zero-sum game,” says ABI Research principal analyst Dominique Bonte. “It’s not that Americans will lose enthusiasm for LBS. These changing shares of global LBS revenue just reflect the fact that a market which for technical reasons has been largely restricted to North America, will finally grow strongly in other world regions.”
LBS’s slow uptake outside North America has had everything to do with the fact that unlike the CDMA phones so prevalent there, which have utilized GPS to comply with the United States’ E911 regulatory mandate, the GSM handsets owned by most users in Europe and Asia have not generally offered native GPS support.
However with the broader proliferation of GPS-enabled GSM handsets in those other regions, and with the quickening rollout of 3G services worldwide, the opportunities for LBS service offerings will grow quickly.
That’s not to say that the same applications will be adopted at the same rate everywhere, or that LBS revenues will be uniform. “Since most LBS application developers sell to the world, and most of their products are platform-agnostic, the cost per service for users is likely to be similar in all regions,” says Bonte.
“However, a navigation service can cost as much as $9.99/month, whereas friend-finder services might only be $2.99. On that basis, as well as via cultural preferences, particular services will be popular to differing degrees in different regions. That can affect the total revenue to be generated from a particular region.” [ABI Research]
Half of US Cable Subscribers Will Have “tru2way” by 2013
To create a more competitive market in the United States, the Telecommunications Act of 1996 required cable operators to open up their specifications. The result was OCAP, the Open Cable Applications Platform, recently rebranded “tru2way”. Any device with a tru2way compliant receiver can receive premium cable TV programming on any operator’s network with the appropriate CableCARD. This means any STB vendor can build a tru2way-compliant device and compete for cable operators’ business, and CE manufacturers can embed them in TV’s or other devices for retail.
Operators are finally starting to deploy tru2way STBs and in 2013 about half of all US cable subscribers will have a tru2way STB. But according to ABI Research principal analyst Steve Wilson, many industry-political obstacles and interoperability challenges must be overcome along the way.
“Consumer electronics manufacturers have been at odds with the cable industry over tru2way for a long time,” says Wilson. “It’s been a pretty contentious era. Vendors say the implementation is too expensive and that it’s overkill for basic services. They point out that many cable operators aren’t even deploying these systems. The cable operators themselves won’t provide forecasts for tru2way STB deployments. They’re not willing to tell the market (or developers) how many boxes they expect to ship over time.”
Tru2way is a double-edged sword for operators. On one hand, cable operators want to “own” the customer’s entire user experience and they aren’t ready to allow others to start loading applications into the STB. On the other, an open cable standard will reduce the tremendous cost burden custom systems and STBs place on the entire cable business.
But what may prove the biggest challenge is interoperability. “There’s no real interoperability testing, and no industry group focused on making sure that all the devices brought to market will work in all cable systems,” warns Wilson. “If applications and devices aren’t portable across cable systems, a retail market will never appear and operators will continue to carry the burden of STBs. “ [ABI Research]
Wi-Fi Consumer Access Point Shipments to Grow to 88M in 2013
Shipments of consumer-oriented 802.11n Wi-Fi access points are expected to see a dramatic increase over the next five years, rising from just 6 million this year to a forecast 88 million in 2013.
This rapid growth won’t reach full velocity from a standing start, however. According to ABI Research vice president Stan Schatt, “802.11n will become the default Wi-Fi technology of choice as equipment vendors include it in their new products. The real market growth will kick in when sufficient numbers of consumers have 802.11n capabilities embedded in their new laptop and desktop computers. We anticipate the greatest adoption to take place in the 2009-2010 timeframe.”
A similar pattern is expected in the enterprise: the rate at which companies replace their laptops. “You can achieve 802.11n connectivity with adapter cards,” says Schatt, “but most IT managers don’t like them because they can get lost or damaged.” Most enterprises work to a roughly three year laptop replacement cycle, but, Schatt believes, that cycle may be slightly longer in the current economic climate.
Successful vendors to the enterprise will be those with well-established channels selling to the early-adopting vertical sectors of education, healthcare, retail and manufacturing. Schatt suggests that, "While some larger organizations remain initially wary because 'n' is still a draft with ratification of the final standard expected next year, companies with workgroups that need 802.11n’s extra speed, range, and robustness may push ahead in a piecemeal fashion.” By the end of 2013, the enterprise component of 802.11n equipment sales will represent about 16% of the total market.
That said, Schatt also reports that many vendors seem pleasantly surprised by the speed of enterprise adoption that is taking place already, which he attributes to the reassurance provided by the Wi-Fi Alliance’s interoperability testing certification. [ABI Research]
AWS-3 License Would Fetch $2.8B Without FCC's Conditions
By Lynnette Luna
Analysis from the Phoenix Center says that the FCC's proposed auction of a nationwide 25-megahertz license in the Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) band would garner about $2.8 billion at auction if the license didn't come attached with substantial conditions--which includes offering free broadband wireless service and strict buildout requirements. Phoenix Center Chief Economist George S. Ford came to that number after analyzing the results of prior auctions in the AWS band and the recent 700 MHz auction, which resulted in an auction value of approximately $0.40 per MHz-pop.
The commission is proposing to combine the 2155 to 2175 MHz band with the 2175 MHz to 2180 MHz band to create a 25-megahertz swathe of spectrum that would support a nationwide license. The spectrum is referred to as AWS-3. Under FCC proposals, the licensee of this band would be required to use up to 25 percent of its network capacity for free, two-way broadband service at data rates of at least 768 kbps downstream. A network-based filtering mechanism would also be required for the free Internet service to protect children and families from obscene content. The winning bidder of the AWS-3 band would also have to offer coverage and service to at least 50 percent of the U.S. population within four years and at least 95 percent of the population by the end of 10 years.
These type of stipulations can substantially impact the value of spectrum, said the Phoenix Center. "There may be significant social or consumer value to many of the conditions proposed by the FCC for the AWS-3 license," said Ford. "But policymakers should be aware of the impact that their decisions have upon the value of spectrum and the business case for offering wireless services over encumbered licenses." [FierceBroadbandWireless]
Microsoft: FCC's Tests Validate White Space
By Lynnette Luna
Despite the fact that its prototypes malfunctioned during lab tests at the FCC, Microsoft says the FCC has gathered enough valid data to show that devices can operate in the white space spectrum without causing interference.
"The commission has gotten more than enough valuable and valid data to show that you can use these devices to do spectrum sensing, that you can identify TV channels, and that you can identity them to the level that you're not causing interference," Microsoft's Ian Ferrell said during a technology conference in San Francisco called Supernova. Last week, the FCC completed lab tests of white-space devices submitted by several different companies.
Microsoft's own white-space prototypes malfunctioned--one due to a faulty channel scanner the other due to overheating. The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), which is vehemently opposed to the use of white space because it fears interference problems with TV signals, has used that as ammunition to say that these devices cause interference. Ferrell insists FCC tests have shown interference isn't a problem.
For its part, the FCC says it will undergo another round of testing in the field within the next few weeks. Microsoft has withdrawn its faulty prototypes, but FCC engineers are still studying devices from Philips, Motorola, and Adaptrum, a Silicon Valley white-space startup. [FierceBroadbandWireless]
Five Mobile Social Networking Services You Should Get to Know
Mobile social networking continues to win friends and influence people. A new report issued by market research firm In-Stat says so-called "millennials" are spearheading its growth, forecasting that nearly 30 million U.S. millennials will subscribe to mobile social networking services by 2012.
According to In-Stat, blogging, photo and video sharing, location-based socialization services, games and messaging will all converge to deliver a complete social networking experience on the handset, but the pieces of the puzzle are still fitting into place. Here are five fledgling mobile social networking services worth watching.
Meet Now Live
sniff
Trapster
Whrrl
Xumii
Source: FierceMobileContent
NextWave, Dmedia Team on Mobile WiMAX Device
By Sue Marek
NextWave Wireless has joined forces with Taiwan manufacturer Dmedia to produce a mobile WiMAX device that will make its debut in the first half of 2009.
Dmedia is a GPS OEM/ODM firm that owns dmobile, a mobile phone manufacturer. NextWave says that the two firms will make a device that will use NextWave's WiMAX chipset to deliver robust features such as NextWave's MXtv mobile broadcast service, streaming video, video conferencing and VOIP.
This news follows NextWave's announcement at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona last February that the company had collaborated with Finish firm Elektrobit on a reference design based upon NextWave's WiMAX chipset. Together, the two firms had hoped that the design would help bring WiMAX handset reference designs to market quicker. [FierceBroadbandWireless]
Intel-backed Startup Peddles WiFi PAN Technology
A California start-up is coming to market with low-power WiFi personal area network (WiFi PAN) to bring low-power peripheral connectivity to WiFi platforms and give Bluetooth some competition.
Ozmo Devices, with Intel as one of its backers, is coming to market with technology that doesn't require an additional radio inside the platform or a dongle to communicate with a peripheral, such as a mouse or headset. The technology includes a software driver and an ultra-low power integrated circuit in the wireless peripheral that communicates with the platform.
Ozmo says its WiFi PAN technology is slated for integration in high-volume WiFi platforms and major peripheral manufacturers such as Belkin are sampling the IC for their new designs.
Ozmo's strategy is to target the computer and peripheral market initially, followed by consumer electronic devices that incorporate WiFi.
Dave Timm, CEO of Ozmo, says WiFi PAN technology offers performance advantages over Bluetooth, including longer talk time. The price of the technology is also competitive with Bluetooth, he says. [FierceBroadbandWireless]
TD-SCDMA Surfaces into Commercial Daylight
“Though China’s government has yet to issue its 3G licenses and telecom restructuring is still ongoing, TD-SCDMA is now live,” reports ABI Research analyst Hwai Lin Khor. “After many years of research and development, and many trials conducted by China Mobile, the 3G service has made a ‘soft’ launch in eight cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Shenzhen starting April 2008 on a trial basis.”
To attract subscribers, China Mobile has also opened TD-SCDMA “experience shops” in these major cities to allow the public to experiment with TD-SCDMA handsets and gain confidence with TD-SCDMA’s capabilities.
In order to make TD-SCDMA service an incremental upgrade from existing 2.5G subscriptions, China Mobile is understood to be charging TD-SCDMA subscribers monthly subscription fees of RMB50($7)/month and RMB0.6($0.09)/minute for video calls, while mobile Internet usage will be based on a flat rate with a capped usage plan. Charges for voice calls, SMS, MMS and additional data traffic are maintained at the same rate as existing plans. Value-added services already available for 2.5G subscribers, including a wireless music club, mobile newspaper, and mobile wallet, are also accessible to TD-SCDMA subscribers at the same rate but with an improved user experience.
“China Mobile is planning to roll out 3G-specific services such as mobile TV, video sharing applications, video conferencing, etc. progressively during 2008,” notes Hwai Lin Khor. “ABI Research believes this price plan and service package will attract existing young subscribers to make the switch.”
During this initial launch, 60,000 dual-mode TD-SCDMA/GSM handsets and 15,000 data cards will be on sale in China Mobile’s TD-SCDMA experience shops, from popular brands such Samsung, LG, Hisense, Lenovo, ZTE, and Postcom. These handsets are in the mid- to high-end range with built-in camera, wide screen, and extensive multimedia applications. China Mobile is believed to be selling these phones for subsidized prices of RMB2,000 ($286) – RMB4,000 ($572).
“Now is when the real test kicks in,” concludes Hwai Lin Khor, “gauging TD-SCDMA’s performance under conditions of mass and varied mobility usage.” [ABI Research]
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