IDC Predicts Asia/Pacific Mobile Subscribers Reaching 901 million in 2009

• Posted: Tuesday, June 28, 2005
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• Author: pradhana
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• Filed under: Market Survey

Singapore, June 6, 2005 - According to IDC's latest report "Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan) Mobile Services 2005-2009 Forecast Update: 2004 Year-End Review" (Doc# AP201338M), Asia/Pacific excluding Japan (APEJ) enjoyed a strong performance in mobile services in 2004, surpassing growth in the major regions of North America and Western Europe. Total mobile subscribers in APEJ grew a robust 25.6% in 2004 over 2003 to 527.3 million. The 10 key markets in APEJ also saw mobile service revenue grow a healthy 18% in 2004 year on year to US$69.8 billion.

India was the fastest growing market in the region as subscribers more than doubled to 48 million, while China, the Philippines and Thailand were also significant contributors. "India's mobile services market saw an overnight expansion due to the conversion of wireless local loop services to full mobility services under the new universal licensing regime," says Alayne Wong, Research Manager, Wireless Communications, IDC Asia/Pacific. "Other factors boosting growth in the region include increasing popularity of prepaid plans, as well as continued network expansion in emerging markets, extending the reach of mobile services to wider segments of the markets. For 2005, IDC forecasts a robust 18.6% growth in APEJ mobile service subscribers to 625.5 million."

Led by strong subscriber growth, mobile service penetration in APEJ improved to 20% in 2004, from 16.1% in 2003. However, the diversity of these 10 markets in terms of market maturity, competition, network technology, growth potential, per capital income and service adoption, drew wide differences amongst markets. Five of these markets had reached penetration of 75% and above; namely, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; while other emerging and less developed markets are catching up fast. But at the other end of the continuum is India, which still lags far behind with mobile service penetration at a paltry 4.5% in 2004. In the next phase of growth for mature markets, 3G services made noticeable progress last year. South Korea enjoyed more than doubling in 3G subscribers, while Australia and Hong Kong saw adoption rates pick up. 3G subscribers totaled 10.2 million in 2004, accounting for 1.9% of the market in APEJ.

Source: IDC, 2005

Looking ahead, IDC forecasts total mobile subscribers in APEJ to grow at 11% CAGR reaching 901.1 million in 2009, with mobile service revenues growing 9.4% CAGR to US$109.3 billion. APEJ's aggregate mobile service penetration is projected to rise to 32.5% in 2009, largely on the back of huge net subscriber additions in the two most populous markets of India and China. India will continue to have enormous potential given its low penetration and huge latent demand.

In the mature markets where low single-digit subscriber growth is expected, IDC expects full-blown competition in 3G services over the forecast period, to move 3G from niche to mainstream. IDC forecasts that by 2009, 3G subscribers will represent 14% of total mobile subscribers in the region. With increasing usage of advanced high-speed networks, this will aid non-voice mobile service revenues to rise in significance from 13% in 2004 to 21% in 2009.

For more information about purchasing the research, please contact Selina Ang at +65-6228-7717 or sang@idc.com. For press inquiries, please contact Heng Sue-Yuan at +65-6228-7731 or sheng@idc.com.


Source: IDC Predicts Asia/Pacific Mobile subscribers grow at 11% CAGR in 2009

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