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What’s Hot or Not in 2008

1. Mobile advertising [HOT]

So confident is Google in the potential of mobile advertising that the Internet giant staked its wireless future on ad revenues -- its much-ballyhooed open-source mobile platform Android effectively turns upside down the conventional wireless business model, giving away software and services in exchange for income derived from advertising efforts.

As location-based search, sponsored content, idle-screen pitches and related mobile marketing initiatives grow in scope and reach -- and as targeted, contextual campaigns slowly but surely become the norm -- forward-thinking operators will be forced to give serious consideration to embracing advertising-based consumer models alongside traditional subscription-based services.


2. The walled garden [NOT]

Weeks after Google introduced Android in tandem with its Open Handset Alliance industry coalition, Verizon Wireless closed out 2007 with a bombshell: In the year ahead, it will open its network and enable subscribers to use devices, software and applications not otherwise offered by the operator.

At first blush, Verizon is effectively ceding control over the mobile experience, enabling subscribers to call their own shots and embrace whatever off-deck content and services they choose. It may seem like a huge gamble, but freedom isn't free, and with the demise of the walled garden will come a sharp decrease in handset subsidies, guaranteeing consumers will pay handsomely for their newfound independence.


3. Live mobile TV [HOT]

Forget repurposed, on-demand series and clips, let alone original mobisode content--thanks to the ongoing Writers Guild of America strike, that ship has sailed. But live mobile TV programming will become more prominent than ever in 2008.

Sports will remain the linchpin of live mobile content both at home and abroad--already the NFL, NCAA football and the NBA are staples on U.S. handsets, while overseas, operators are counting on the Beijing Summer Olympics and soccer's UEFA Euro 2008 Championship to drive subscriber uptake.

But 2008 is also shaping up as a pivotal and likely tumultuous year in politics and finance, highlighted by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and mobile is now the platform best positioned to deliver breaking news wherever and whenever it happens.


4. DRM (Digital Rights Management) [NOT]

Following Warner Music Group's late December announcement that it will begin selling DRM-free MP3 downloads via Amazon.com, Sony BMG stands alone as the sole major label still clinging to digital rights management protections.

In an e-mail to staffers, WMG head Edgar Bronfman Jr. wrote: "We have concluded that both the development and growth of the online store environment are being hampered by the handcuffs which today's inflexible, non-interoperable copy-protection puts on both retailers and consumers… By providing an immediate interoperable solution to retail partners who are committed to working with us to deliver new and more robust music-based experiences, we'll encourage more consumption of existing products while introducing consumers to new and better ones."

Once Sony BMG inevitably bows to the pressure and DRM becomes as irrelevant as R.E.M., Apple's stranglehold over the digital music marketplace will face its first serious threats--expect a price war with Amazon as well as increased competition from rival service providers like eMusic and RealNetworks.


5. Mobile banking [HOT]

By the end of 2007, Bank of America--the world's second largest banking corporation--counted more than 500,000 active mobile banking customers, despite introducing mobile services just six months earlier. To paraphrase Snoop Dogg, consumers have their mind on their money and their money on their mind, so it's no surprise that mobile banking is quickly approaching mainstream status.

A recent report issued by market research firm TowerGroup forecasts that mobile banking services will soar from 1.1 million consumers in 2007 to 40.9 million by 2012, and for once it seems like such lofty projections are justified -- after all, if the mobile experience indeed hinges on brief snacking interludes, it certainly seems much more productive to spend five minutes checking account balances, transferring cash and paying bills rather than playing games or watching YouTube clips. [FierceMobileContent

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